Statistics · Gold
Gold price volatility —
the 2025–2026 numbers.
Gold set 53 all-time highs in 2025 and averaged $3,431/oz, up 44% — then swung from $5,595.47 to $3,959.33 inside the first half of 2026 while jewellery demand fell 18% by weight and still rose 18% by value. This page aggregates those numbers from their primary sources — the World Gold Council and J.P. Morgan Global Research — with the period each figure covers stated next to it. Every figure was last verified against its source on July 4, 2026.
The Headline Numbers
Five figures that frame the metal you price in.
New all-time highs set by the LBMA (PM) gold price
Figure
53
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Average gold price
Figure
$3,431/oz (up 44% year on year)
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Spot gold intraday range
Figure
$5,595.47 (Jan 29) to $3,959.33 (Jun 24)
Period
2026, first half
Source
World Gold Council
Realized gold volatility at the 2026 peak
Figure
more than 50% (20-year average: 17%)
Period
H1 2026
Source
World Gold Council
Global jewellery demand volume
Figure
1,542.3 tonnes (down 18%) (while jewellery value rose 18% to a record $172bn)
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
| Metric | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| New all-time highs set by the LBMA (PM) gold price | 53 | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Average gold price | $3,431/oz (up 44% year on year) | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Spot gold intraday range | $5,595.47 (Jan 29) to $3,959.33 (Jun 24) | 2026, first half | World Gold Council |
| Realized gold volatility at the 2026 peak | more than 50% (20-year average: 17%) | H1 2026 | World Gold Council |
| Global jewellery demand volume | 1,542.3 tonnes (down 18%) (while jewellery value rose 18% to a record $172bn) | 2025 | World Gold Council |
The one-line read: gold's move is no longer background noise in a jewelry purchase order — the metal itself now swings faster than most stores turn their inventory, and the demand data shows buyers everywhere responding by buying fewer, lighter, better-priced pieces.
The Price Ride
Fifty-three records up, one hard correction down.
Average gold price, full year
Figure
$3,431/oz (up 44% year on year)
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Average gold price, fourth quarter
Figure
a record $4,135/oz (up 55% year on year)
Period
Q4 2025
Source
World Gold Council
New all-time highs (LBMA PM price)
Figure
53
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
New all-time highs
Figure
12, surpassing $5,500/oz intraday in late January
Period
2026, first half
Source
World Gold Council
Spot gold intraday high
Figure
$5,595.47
Period
January 29, 2026
Source
World Gold Council
Spot gold intraday low
Figure
$3,959.33
Period
June 24, 2026
Source
World Gold Council
Peak-to-trough swing between those two prints
Figure
roughly 29% in under five months (computed from the two intraday prints above)
Period
H1 2026
Source
World Gold Council
Gold price and year-to-date move
Figure
about $4,100/oz, down about 7% YTD
Period
June 26, 2026
Source
World Gold Council
| Metric | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average gold price, full year | $3,431/oz (up 44% year on year) | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Average gold price, fourth quarter | a record $4,135/oz (up 55% year on year) | Q4 2025 | World Gold Council |
| New all-time highs (LBMA PM price) | 53 | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| New all-time highs | 12, surpassing $5,500/oz intraday in late January | 2026, first half | World Gold Council |
| Spot gold intraday high | $5,595.47 | January 29, 2026 | World Gold Council |
| Spot gold intraday low | $3,959.33 | June 24, 2026 | World Gold Council |
| Peak-to-trough swing between those two prints | roughly 29% in under five months (computed from the two intraday prints above) | H1 2026 | World Gold Council |
| Gold price and year-to-date move | about $4,100/oz, down about 7% YTD | June 26, 2026 | World Gold Council |
The 2025 story was a one-way tape: 53 LBMA records and a fourth quarter that averaged $4,135/oz. The 2026 story is what a buyer actually has to plan for — a market that made 12 more highs by late January and then gave back roughly 29% by late June. Both legs are the same lesson: the price a supplier quoted you last month is not the price of the metal in the piece today.
Volatility, In Context
Three times the twenty-year normal.
Realized volatility at the 2026 peak
Figure
more than 50%
Period
H1 2026
Source
World Gold Council
Realized volatility after the June correction
Figure
below 30%
Period
late June 2026
Source
World Gold Council
20-year average gold volatility
Figure
17%
Period
2006–2026
Source
World Gold Council
| Metric | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realized volatility at the 2026 peak | more than 50% | H1 2026 | World Gold Council |
| Realized volatility after the June correction | below 30% | late June 2026 | World Gold Council |
| 20-year average gold volatility | 17% | 2006–2026 | World Gold Council |
Volatility above 50% is equity-crash territory, not precious-metal territory — and even after cooling below 30% it remains well above the 17% two-decade norm. For a store, that gap is the difference between re-pricing a case quarterly and re-pricing it weekly.
The Jewelry Effect
Fewer grams sold, more dollars paid.
Global jewellery demand, volume
Figure
1,542.3 tonnes (down 18% year on year)
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Global jewellery demand, value
Figure
up 18% to a record $172 billion
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Jewellery demand, fourth quarter
Figure
441.5 tonnes (down 19% year on year)
Period
Q4 2025
Source
World Gold Council
Total gold demand including OTC
Figure
over 5,000 tonnes for the first time — $555bn (up 45%)
Period
2025
Source
World Gold Council
Bar and coin buying, fourth quarter
Figure
420.5 tonnes (up 30% year on year)
Period
Q4 2025
Source
World Gold Council
| Metric | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global jewellery demand, volume | 1,542.3 tonnes (down 18% year on year) | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Global jewellery demand, value | up 18% to a record $172 billion | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Jewellery demand, fourth quarter | 441.5 tonnes (down 19% year on year) | Q4 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Total gold demand including OTC | over 5,000 tonnes for the first time — $555bn (up 45%) | 2025 | World Gold Council |
| Bar and coin buying, fourth quarter | 420.5 tonnes (up 30% year on year) | Q4 2025 | World Gold Council |
Jewellery volume fell in every market on earth in 2025 — and the dollar value of jewellery sold still hit a record $172 billion. Shoppers did not stop buying; they bought lighter and paid more per gram. For the retailer, that shifts the game to gold weight per piece and per-gram honesty: a case full of over-heavy designs is now a bet on the gold price, not a merchandising plan.
The Road Ahead
Where forecasters put the price next.
Forecast average gold price
Figure
$5,243/oz
Period
2026 (forecast)
Source
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Forecast gold price, fourth quarter
Figure
$6,000/oz
Period
Q4 2026 (forecast)
Source
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Forecast average gold price
Figure
$6,263/oz
Period
2027 (forecast)
Source
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Central bank buying, quarterly average
Figure
225 tonnes (roughly double the 2016–2020 pace)
Period
2021–2025
Source
J.P. Morgan Global Research
| Metric | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast average gold price | $5,243/oz | 2026 (forecast) | J.P. Morgan Global Research |
| Forecast gold price, fourth quarter | $6,000/oz | Q4 2026 (forecast) | J.P. Morgan Global Research |
| Forecast average gold price | $6,263/oz | 2027 (forecast) | J.P. Morgan Global Research |
| Central bank buying, quarterly average | 225 tonnes (roughly double the 2016–2020 pace) | 2021–2025 | J.P. Morgan Global Research |
J.P. Morgan's June 2026 view has gold averaging $5,243/oz in 2026 and $6,263/oz in 2027, underwritten by central banks that have bought about 225 tonnes a quarter since 2021. Treat every forecast as a scenario, not a schedule — the same June that carried this forecast also saw spot dip under $4,000. The planning takeaway is the range, not the point estimate.
What It Means
Volatility is now a line item.
Put the datasets together and the operating picture for a wholesale buyer is concrete. First, quote lifetimes shrink: when the metal can move a fifth of its value inside a season, an undated price is a guess. Second, inventory depth is exposure: every extra unit in the safe is a leveraged position on the charts above. Third, weight discipline pays twice — lighter designs protect the retail price point and cut the volatility exposure per piece.
The mechanics that answer all three are boring and checkable: a per-gram price tied to a dated gold fix, published gold weights on every style, and minimums low enough to buy shallow and reorder on sell-through. The economics of that last lever are worked through in our MOQ economics guide.
Where Clazoire fits
Our stake, stated plainly.
Clazoire prices gold per gram in USD against a dated spot capture, published on our wholesale gold price index with per-karat breakdowns — so a store can check our math against the same charts this page cites. Minimums start at 1 unit on most styles, which is the shallow-buy mechanic the volatility data argues for. Open a wholesale account if the numbers make the case; cite the page either way.
Sources & Methodology
Check every number yourself.
- Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025 — World Gold Council, 2026.
- Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break — World Gold Council, June 2026.
- Gold Price Predictions for 2026 and 2027 — J.P. Morgan Global Research, June 9, 2026.
Each figure states the period it covers and was last verified against its primary source on July 4, 2026. Figures that could not be traced to a primary source were dropped rather than estimated. Prices move; treat these as dated benchmarks, not quotes. Spot an error or hold newer primary data? Send a correction via our contact page and we'll update the page and credit the fix. This page is free to cite with attribution. For the diamond side of the purchase order, see our lab-grown vs natural price statistics.
To cite this page
Clazoire Wholesale, "Gold Price Volatility 2025–2026: Statistics for Jewelry Buyers", https://wholesale.clazoire.com/stats/gold-price-volatility-wholesale-jewelry — figures verified against primary sources on July 4, 2026.
Embed this chart (free, attribution link required)
<a href="https://wholesale.clazoire.com/stats/gold-price-volatility-wholesale-jewelry"><img src="https://wholesale.clazoire.com/stats/gold-price-volatility-wholesale-jewelry/og" alt="Gold Price Volatility 2025–2026: Statistics for Jewelry Buyers — Clazoire Wholesale" width="600" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"/></a> <p style="font-size:12px">Chart: <a href="https://wholesale.clazoire.com/stats/gold-price-volatility-wholesale-jewelry">Clazoire Wholesale</a>, verified July 4, 2026.</p>
The Specifics
The numbers, answered straight.
Historically volatile. The LBMA (PM) gold price set 53 new all-time highs in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 spot gold swung from an intraday high of $5,595.47 on January 29 to an intraday low of $3,959.33 on June 24 — roughly 29% peak to trough in under five months. Realized volatility topped 50% at the 2026 peak against a 20-year average of 17%, per the World Gold Council.
$3,431 per ounce, up 44% year on year, per the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends full-year 2025 report. The fourth quarter averaged a record $4,135 per ounce, up 55% on the year.
Volume fell, value rose. Global jewellery demand dropped 18% by weight in 2025 to 1,542.3 tonnes — declining in every market — yet the value of that jewellery rose 18% to a record $172 billion, per the World Gold Council. Stores sold fewer, more expensive pieces, which is why gold weight per piece and honest per-gram pricing now decide a purchase order.
J.P. Morgan Global Research (June 9, 2026) forecasts gold averaging $5,243 per ounce in 2026, reaching $6,000 in the fourth quarter, and averaging $6,263 in 2027 — supported by central banks that bought an average 225 tonnes per quarter across 2021–2025, roughly double the prior five-year pace. These are forecasts, not promises; the June 2026 dip below $4,000 shows how fast the tape can move against them.
Against a dated spot price, not a verbal quote. When the metal can move a fifth of its value in months, the honest mechanics are: a per-gram price tied to a dated gold fix you can check, published gold weights per piece, and minimums low enough to buy shallow and reorder on sell-through instead of holding deep inventory through a swing. That logic holds for any supplier.
Every figure is traced to a named primary source — the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends (Q4 and full-year 2025) and Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026, and J.P. Morgan Global Research's June 2026 forecast — with the period each number covers stated next to it. Figures that could not be verified against a primary source were dropped rather than estimated.
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